August 18 Primary Preview: What to Watch in Alaska, Wyoming, and Florida

Three states, four contests that matter, and one special election. What is on the ballot, what would count as a surprise, and which numbers to ignore on Tuesday night.

Three states vote on Tuesday, August 18 — Alaska, Wyoming, and Florida — plus a special election in California's 14th district. It is the last multi-state primary day before New Hampshire in September. Here is what is on the ballot, what would count as a surprise, and what to ignore.

Alaska

Alaska runs a top-four primary: every candidate on one ballot, every voter picks one, the top four advance to a ranked-choice general in November. This means Tuesday winnows almost nothing in the Senate race — Sen. Dan Sullivan and former Rep. Mary Peltola will both advance easily out of a sixteen-candidate field. What you get is a strength reading, not a result.

Read the margin, not the winner. And note the asterisk: a second candidate named Dan Sullivan, from Petersburg, filed at the deadline and is on the same ballot.

The governor's race is the one where top-four does real work. Dunleavy is term-limited and seventeen tickets filed for four slots. Former state Sen. Tom Begich has led polling all year without approaching a majority, with the Republican field scattered in single digits. How many Republicans make the final four determines whether Begich faces one opponent in November or three.

Would be a surprise: Peltola finishing first. Ignore: early returns from the road system, which badly understate rural and Alaska Native turnout.

Wyoming

The Senate seat, the at-large House seat, and the governorship are all open at once, and Wyoming's closed Republican primary effectively decides all three.

For Senate, Rep. Harriet Hageman is the overwhelming favorite to succeed the retiring Cynthia Lummis, holding endorsements from Trump and the Club for Growth. The competitive race is the one her departure created: ten Republicans filed for the open House seat, headed by Secretary of State Chuck Gray, in what in-state observers call the most expensive primary in Wyoming this cycle. For governor, state superintendent Megan Degenfelder has endorsements from both Trump and Hageman.

Would be a surprise: Hageman under 60 percent, or Gray failing to make the top two. Ignore: the Democratic primaries, in a state that has not sent a Democrat to the Senate in living memory.

Florida

Two open statewide races. In the Senate special — for the remainder of Marco Rubio's term, currently held by appointed Sen. Ashley Moody — the only contested side is the Democratic primary, where Alex Vindman leads state Rep. Angie Nixon. Decision Desk HQ gives Republicans roughly a four-in-five chance of holding in November, but treats a Democratic flip as pushing Democrats to about an 84 percent chance of the Senate majority.

In the open governor's race, Trump-endorsed Rep. Byron Donalds leads the Republican primary at roughly 43 percent in DDHQ's average, ahead of Lt. Gov. Jay Collins (~14), James Fishback (~9), and Paul Renner (~8). Former Rep. David Jolly, a Republican who switched parties in 2025, leads the Democratic field.

The counterintuitive number: DDHQ's average of a Donalds–Jolly general has Donalds up just four, 43 to 39 — a tighter race than the Senate seat on the same ballot.

Would be a surprise: Donalds under 40 percent. Ignore: turnout comparisons to 2022, a cycle with a very different top of the ticket.

CA-14

The special general to fill Eric Swalwell's seat, between Wahab and Hernandez, in a D+20 district. A safe Democratic hold that cuts the House vacancy count from four to three. It will not produce a meaningful margin signal — the district is too blue for the overperformance metric to mean anything.

The backdrop

Two national conditions frame Tuesday. Generic-ballot polling has run wide, from D+3 to D+11 depending on the pollster, with a CNN/SSRS survey conducted July 23–27 putting Democrats up eight among registered voters and up twenty points among voters who describe themselves as extremely motivated. The enthusiasm gap has been more consistent all cycle than the topline.

Meanwhile the one economic indicator that had been moving toward the administration has reversed. After falling for a week, the AAA national gas average climbed back to about $4.07 by August 13, with crude back in the $80-per-barrel range amid continued Strait of Hormuz uncertainty. AAA notes this is the highest August on record at the pump. Cost of living remains the administration's weakest issue, and the brief improvement has stalled.

After Tuesday

The calendar thins out fast. August 25 brings the South Carolina Republican Senate runoff between appointed Sen. Darline Graham and Rep. Ralph Norman, the GA-13 special runoff, and Oklahoma's Democratic Senate runoff. September 8 is New Hampshire — the last competitive Senate nomination on the board. Then it is seventy-some days of general election.

We will have live coverage on the dashboard as results come in Tuesday night.